Strong demand for motor vehicles on both sides of the borderĪlthough it is still weighed down by the residual impact of COVID-19, lingering supply chain issues and a persisting shortage of computer chips, Ontario’s manufacturing industry has steadily strengthened over the past several months, due in part to an increase in the output of transportation equipment (i.e., motor vehicles). The province’s record-high jobs vacancy rate and the increase in the net employment outlook reported by Manpower Canada, suggest firms will rehire laid-of staff once the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, as they did in 2021. Over the past 12 months, employment in the province is up by +408,000, just offsetting the -408,600 jobs lost in 2020. The largest jobs gain in the latest month (+19,000) was reported for the construction industry. Then, as now, employment in services took the largest hit, dropping by 139,000 jobs in January of this year, just slightly less than the minus 141,000 figure recorded in 2021. However, a closer look at the data reveals this recent decline is a repeat of what happened when the Delta variant hit the province in April of 2021. The loss of 145,000 jobs in January suggests the onset of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has stalled the province’s economy. In the wake of this easing, consumer spending, particularly on services, should exhibit a solid recovery that extends well into the second half of the year.Įmployers will start rehiring laid off staff in March or April
The precipitous drop in the seven-day rolling average case count of the Omicron COVID-19 variant from a high of 19,347 on January 2, 2022, to its current level (February 6, 2022) of 2,225 has, as it did in 2021, prompted the government to implement a plan to ease lockdown restrictions. The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence for Ontario has, over the past two months, retreated from 107 to a seven-month low of 100.Įasing of COVID restrictions will soon liberate consumers Business confidence reflected by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)’s Ontario Business Barometer dropped from 68.5 in December to an 18-month low of 56.3 in January. The rapid escalation of the incidence of Omicron has, once again, dampened both consumer and business confidence. Ontario’s response to the rapid onset of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in late 2021 has been similar to how it reacted to the less transmissible Delta variant that peaked early in the second quarter of 2021.
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